Saving Time? ...
No one knows where Egypt _
The insurgency is there. The revolution is slow, which may lead to structural change and a true democratic project.
One thing seems certain: Mubarak will not take very long power .
What transition? Hard to say ... The old and new are in conflict. The army retains control over the institutions. Also staged between the actor not disinterested, trying to play "referee" or to impose its views ... by bypasses prepared.
Egypt is not Tunisia. In the process irreversibly affecting the Arab world , Cairo is of utmost importance for Washington :
" ... It will be much harder to go after the revolt in Egypt elsewhere in Tunisia, particularly because of the economic and geostrategic interests of the USA in the country and region. Egypt is a cornerstone of U.S. policy in the Middle East for thirty years. The U.S. would not have made the wars in Iraq without the logistical support of Egypt. We must also recall the importance of the Suez Canal through which passes 7.5% of world trade. Moreover, the U.S. can not afford a destabilization of that country because of its pr oximité with Israel and the presence of the Muslim Brotherhood. The U.S. would prefer to see another strong man to succeed Mubarak to maintain stability in the country and protect their interests. They will not let go Mubarak, unless a new strong man is needed, as Omar Suleiman and General Hussein Tantawi example. It should be remembered that the army is in power directly or indirectly in Egypt for over fifty years. But all these strong trends (I) are think it is an irreversible process in the medium term. These plans are doomed, but they can still save time ... . "
_ _Où going to Egypt? Fears of a rise of the Muslim Brotherhood often divided whose size and weight policies are difficult to assess , is u
do so brake creates reluctance in Western support. We forget that " is the lack of democracy that has allowed fundamentalist forces nuns to occupy the space. " Some observers ( Sfeir ) believe in the democratic future, the movement will lose its radicalism, its legitimacy and its influence, particularly if the government supports the social, the Brothers invested to popularize. The new generations do not seem to worry about Sharia and more towards the Turkish model.
-Some French writers rather pro-Israelis, expressing their reluctance to support the revolt . " The daily Liberation remember that media intellectuals had refused to condemn the U.S. intervention in Iraq, "the name of democratizing the Arab world." They were also quick to support protests against the pro-Soviet regimes in Eastern Europe in the 1990s or, more recently, against the disputed re-election, and questionable, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran . __Mais For Egypt and Tunisia, is another story. "In Eastern Europe, there was a democratic tradition whose dissident intellectuals, including Czechoslovak or Polish were the heirs. Such a tradition does exist in Egypt? I hope so, but I'm not sure ", asserts Finkielkraut. He rejected the comparison, often cited, Islamist movements in Tunisia and Egypt with the party" Islamo-conservative " AKP in Turkey . "The AKP has to deal with the laity and they have in Turkey, a strength and a unique legitimacy in the Arab countries," he says .... _ _ Curiously, our media stars who are seriously worried about the arrival in power of a fundamentalist religious movement, have never said anything against the fact In Israel a party of this nature is long-time member of the coalition . The Shas party, a religious extremist party (and racist), has been in power in Israel with another far-right party, it equally racist and secular, Israel Beiteinu "surprised Pascal Boniface ... "
-_The revolution is not the taste of the American oligarchy. There is concern that "despite the dissonant voices false U.S. officials," there is pressure to impose a consistent succession to power of the moment. "It seems that the U.S. administration has finally decided to torpedo the revolution of the Egyptian people. She is, first, entrusting to the oligarchy, represented by Frank Wisner, who, moreover, is an old friend of Mubarak , to address the puzzle of Egypt. The position of the U.S. envoy said that behind the scenes, the U.S. is actually doing the opposite of what had hammered Obama in June 2009, during his speech in Cairo to address the Muslim world support the dictatorship at the expense of freedom, the arbitrary rule at the expense of democracy, a rogue regime against peaceful people who aspire to regain their human rights, more basic. Wisner's position reflects that of the American oligarchy . "
Frank G. Wisner is in fact, arrived in Cairo . It is not just anybody .. .
In Egypt, the army is trained and equipped by the Pentagon.
policy of the White House oscillates between open and masters events, among "Realpolitik" and "conflict of interest" : 'I want a representative government in Egypt said Barack Obama in an interview with the conservative TV channel Fox. We said, you must initiate the transition immediately (...). An orderly transition. " __L'expression "orderly transition" was formed specifically for Egypt reminds Washington Post by the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has taken all day Saturday scouring the television shows - five in total ... __The mixed messages and reversals of U.S. policy is mainly a reflection of political "made on the fly" , caused by the unpreparedness of the United States to such a scenario, says a U.S. official the condition of anonymity in New York Times . "We had strategy sessions continuously for the past two years, peace in the Middle East on the way to contain Iran. How many of them foresaw the possibility that Egypt moves from stability to turmoil? None. " __Pour the British newspaper The Independent , there is no " realpolitik "or " policy on the fly "in the American game. "The U.S., once again, working undercover to serve their own interests in the Middle East" , asserts an editorial in the . In this article, we learn in fact that Frank Wisner, U.S. envoy in Egypt that pleaded Saturday for that Mubarak remains in office , is employed by a firm of lawyers and lobbyists working for the regime Mubarak and several "the most influential families in cases in Egypt." "It is nothing short of a conflict of interest" .
_ If Obama hesitates between political and economic interests, because he knows he can not repeat the mistake of Carter during the events of Iran in 1979 ... But
Mahmoud Hussein: "Egypt can not become another Iran."
No one can predict the scenario of events that will affect Egypt in the coming months and years ahead. Nothing is played. But one thing is certain: nothing will ever be ... _______________
-The strange rejection front
Photos Abdelhafiz
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