Agricultural commodities soar
_________Dangereuse price volatility
_ We see today in Tunisia and Egypt: the rise in food prices was partly originally events that we follow from afar. Since the increase in wheat prices was a cause of the outbreak of the Revolution French. The riots return regularly. In Africa particular. That's all, than a shortage.
There is no inevitability to higher prices. Nor famines. Even if we can put
forward deficits productions accidental or structural, is the organization of markets international level is concerned. Speculation and deregulation are the two main causes phenomenon. Which recurs in recent decades. Agriculture was largely sacrificed on the altar market. The FAO acknowledged. A Davos, there was timidly hint ... __Mêmes causes, same effects : "The share of speculators in food markets partly explains the continued rise in prices since the summer of 2010. Foodstuffs have become like other financial assets .. . We remember in 2008 images of "riots." Since almost nothing on our screens, even if the number of undernourished has soared and exceeded one billion. Above all, the causes of the outbreak prices have been suppressed in any way. It is no wonder that the world may know again the same phenomenon, with a continued rise in food prices since last summer and a price index is now higher than in 2008. Just like to express the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, Olivier de Schutter, we live the beginning of a food crisis similar to 2008.
_Difficile not point first major responsibility of the United States and the European Union in the decline in cereal stocks
world, and so the upward trend in prices. Also difficult not to emphasize the role of biofuels , who turned over a third of corn production in the United States last year. The land allocated to them are much less land available for soybeans or wheat, which explains the corresponding increase in world prices, directly related to U.S. prices ... " __"... Today as in 2008, there is no shortage . But when information on fires in Russia, a heat wave in Ukraine, excessive rains in Canada or other accumulated, some market participants prefer not to sell immediately, while buyers seeking to buy as much as possible. If everyone did that, prices rise. In this phenomenon coupled with the increased production of biofuel. United States, the share of corn production for ethanol this year will be 38.3%, against 30.7% in 2008. In the present context is completely irresponsible to go on! Global stocks of grain - all cereals in 2011, will be 427 million tonnes, against 489.8 in 2009. This loss of almost 63 million tonnes is attributable to more than two-thirds in the United States and the European Union. It where supplies are tightest. And it is largely due to the diversification of production of grain to biofuels ... "
___________________ For Paul Jorion " ... Speculation runs markets futures or forward, that is to say where the players set a price today for a transaction that will occur in a few months. Originally, this should allow traders to hedge against price changes. But today, between two thirds and 90% of transactions emanating speculators. There are two approaches speculative: investors 'long' traders and opportunistic. The first usually buy shares in "fund long" consisting of "baskets" of commodities, including especially agricultural products and rely on a long-term upward price, relying on structural factors such as increasing the Chinese demand. These investors can especially coming on the commodities market to hedge against a falling dollar. This strategy generates a systematic long trend of rising course. _The second category is that of opportunistic traders who enter and leave continuously market to take advantage of price changes. They alternate and long positions (long) and short (short) depending on whether prices rise or baissent__ ... (Nicolas Sarkozy spoke Monday a trader who had bought 15% of world cocoa stocks ) ... Yes: Anthony "Chocfinger Ward! There is not, strictly speaking, but speculation of grabbing . The "dealer", as they call him who has truly Product or is able to take delivery is not a bet by buying or selling contracts on the futures market but intervenes directly in the physical market. If there is such a climate problem that will weigh on supply of cocoa, the trader should buy and store a large volume to further reduce supply and raise prices before selling. Today certain investment funds are both grabbing than speculation. We now know that the U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns example was the two on the market money in 2008 ... "
-price volatility and food crises
- No speculation on raw materials ..
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